22 11월 2019

Exotic wagers on the Kentucky Derby can pay off big. Here are the best bets.

Updated to reflect jockey and Haikal switch’s scratch on Cutting Humor

Considering that the Kentucky Derby in 2013 adopted a points system to meet the requirements for the 20-horse area, chalk has ruled that the winner’s team. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were all post-time favorites, returning involving $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 billion bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I’ll Have Another ($32.60 at 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine This Bird ($103.20 at 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 at 2005).
[Everything you Want to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby]
On the other hand, exotic bets like the trifecta (picking the first 3 finishers in order) and superfecta (picking the first four finishers so ) continue to supply betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the $1 triple paid $8,297.20 in addition to another monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Updated to signify the scrape of Haikal and jockey switch on Cutting Humor
Since the Kentucky Derby in 2013 embraced a points system to qualify for the 20-horse field, chalk has mastered that the winner’s circle. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were all post-time favorites, returning between $6.60 and $12.80 to a $2 win bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I’ll Have Another ($32.60 in 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine That Bird ($103.20 in 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 at 2005).
[Everything you Want to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby]
On the other hand, exotic bets such as the trifecta (picking the first 3 finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers in order) continue to supply betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the 1 triple paid $8,297.20 in addition to another monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Isolating the top three or four finishers at a 20-horse field known for its chaos is not simple, but also to getting a good pedigree and a solid base, a horse requires tactical speed to have the ability to keep up with the pace.
Brisnet classified only one horse in the field, Omaha Beach, as a need-to-lead type, or’E’ horse, but he had been scratched on Wednesday, leaving 15 horses set to be stalk the early speed (‘EP’ horses) or close to it (‘P’ horses) between the first (half-mile) and moment (three-quarters of a mile) calls. Four others are believed sustainers or closers (‘S’) and will make their move from further back.
[2019 Kentucky Derby horses, post positions, odds, analysis and Begin time]
NEED-TO-LEAD (‘E’) EARLY PRESSER (‘EP’) PRESSER (‘P’) SUSTAINER OR CLOSER (‘S’)
None Maximum Security Improbable Win Win Win
Spinoff Cutting Humor Code of Honor
Roadster By My Standards Country House
Tax Tacitus Master Fencer
Gray Magician
Vekoma
War of Will
Long Range Toddy
Plus Que Parfait
Game Winner
Bodexpress
However, some horses will be forced by Tuesday’s post position draw . As an instance, Mark Casse, trainer of War Will (post position No. 2) said after the draw that his horse will”probably be on the direct and play catch me if you can.” If he does not visit the front, start looking for Tax, in post No. 3, to”come out jogging and sit on the rail,” according to Tax’s coach, Danny Gargan. Maximum Security (No. 7) will likely be up front but, with a lack of accurate speedsters in the race, the pace should not be rapid enough to hamper Maximum Security’s capacity to survive 11/4 miles.
Being one of the first flight of horses is essential. Over the previous six years each Kentucky Derby winner but one, Orb at 2013, was categorized as using a stalking (‘EP’) working fashion. Half of the horses (12 out of 24) that hit the plank over that span had an’EP’ working fashion as nicely with others recorded as pressers (‘P’), horses sitting just off the leaders at the first call.
Maximum Security qualifies on merit plus running fashion. I would also add Game Winner, Vekoma, Tax, Spinoff and Improbable as good worth plays to hit the board on Saturday within a fast track.
[Three Kentucky Derby shots worth a wager to win]
Improbable is recorded by Brisnet as a presser but he’s never been more than two 1/2 lengths behind the leader in the first or second call. Nyquist was four lengths behind the leader at the first telephone from the 2016 Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah was two lengths off the lead at the first call in 2015. Both won and Improbable resembles a winner . At the minimum, he’s worth using as a key horse into your trifectas and superfectas.
Spinoff inherited almost 3 times as much speed as endurance out of his lineage (2.78 Dosage Index) and his early presser running style should have him in prime position to make a splash.
Vekoma has a similar rate profile (2.56 Dosage Index) and his victory in the Blue Grass — which included a career high Brisnet pace figure (how quickly he ran from the beginning to the next call) of 114 — is reason for optimism this Saturday.
Game Winner failed as the favored in his past two races but he’s hit the board in all six of his starts, never finishing worse than second. However, Baffert has coached two Triple Crown winners in the past 3 decades so that you will not ever be able to count one of his horses outside.
Tax might have to expend energy to acquire a cozy place on the railroad but he has three triple-digit Brisnet rate figures in a row using a new career rate figure (105) in his last homework, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, which makes him an attractive overlay for its superfecta in 20-1 odds.
Win Win Win, By My Standards and Cutting Humor also deserve consideration from superfecta wagers.
Win Win Win closed into a fast pace throughout his second-place finish in the Blue Grass at April and also his pedigree sets up well for a continuing run at the traditional distance.
By My Standards establish a career-high Brisnet speed figure in his Louisiana Derby triumph (102) and his coach has a positive anticipation for graded stakes races at 2019, meaning a $2 blind bet on Bret Calhoun’s horses at these events would net you a 74-cent profit this year. Same for jockey Gabriel Saez (also -$1.18 net gain on route races per $2 wagered in 2019), who has ridden this horse since his first career start at Churchill Downs in November of the this past year.
Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey and two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, will substitute Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. The dark brown colt must in touch with the leaders similar to his victory from the Sunland Derby, letting him utilize his late kick to grab a bit of the plank.
Bearing that in mind, here is how I would construct my trifecta and superfecta tickets.

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